Hawthorn Hawks meet Brisbane Lions in the AFL, and this is a market our model reads as priced a shade too kindly. It works out each outcome's true chance from the odds across a wide set of books, then looks for the side where the best available price runs longer than that chance warrants. Here that side is Hawthorn Hawks. The case has nothing to do with form or headlines. It rests on the gap between what the market is charging and what the numbers say the result is worth, and the verdict below puts a figure on that gap.
Our model makes Hawthorn Hawks a 58% chance to win (fair odds 1.72). The best market price of 1.83 implies only 55%, a +3.3% edge, so there is value on Hawthorn Hawks.
Clear, 15°C, wind 6 km/h at Brisbane.
Closer to kickoff we'll let you pull the latest odds and late team news (confirmed lineups, late injuries, market moves) so you can refresh this pick right before you place it.
Our model makes Hawthorn Hawks the pick, giving it a 58% chance to win in the AFL. That number comes from the odds themselves, not from a tipster's opinion, so it reflects how the whole market prices the game once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
We take the odds from a wide set of bookmakers, strip out the built-in margin to get each team's true implied chance, and turn that into fair odds. Comparing those fair odds to the best price on the market shows whether a side is priced too generously. No form guides or hunches are involved, just the math on live prices.
Yes, and that is what the verdict on this match is flagging. The best available price on Hawthorn Hawks sits longer than our fair estimate of its chance, which is the whole definition of a value bet. The best price is currently at pinnacle. That edge is an average that only shows up across many bets, not a promise about this one game, so read it as a long-run reason to take the price rather than a lock.
The model is built to find prices that are longer than they should be, not to call winners with certainty. An edge plays out across many bets, so any single game can still go either way. Treat it as one input, stake only what you can afford to lose, and check your local rules on betting.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions is scheduled for Fri 7 Aug at 09:40 UTC, in the AFL. Kickoff times on this page show in your local timezone.
Want the bigger picture? See how AFL bets at these odds have paid off over the years in the Odds Explorer